How should we evaluate modelling work for outbreak response?
Sebastian Funk & Katharine Sherratt
https://epiforecasts.io
“All models are wrong, but some are useful”
George Box
To answer these questions, we need to evaluate modelling work.
Some examples
Forecasts vs. Scenarios
Image from: https://covid19scenariomodelinghub.org/
Assess quality of models by how closely prediction matches reality
Assessing predictions requires matching scenarios to reality.
Assess utility by asking recipients of modelling advice?
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Scoping review on evaluation of modelling work with Johanna Hanefeld, Emil Iftekhar, Julia Fitzner, Duaa Rao, Aleena Tanveer.